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China-US trade truce too late to boost weakening transpac rates

Transpacific rates are set to fall - even as China and the US yesterday agreed to mutually cut tariffs on $30bn worth of goods, many of which move in containers. The "30-for-30" deal will see tariffs on more than 90% of listed products drop to standard, most-favoured-nation rates, covers a combined 1,696 product lines. Both sides must complete domestic legal procedures before the cuts take effect simultaneously. The Chinese list includes 1,619 items, dominated by agricultural commodities including corn, wheat, meat, and dairy, alongside seafood, wood products, cosmetics, medical devices, and coal. Beijing has also committed to importing at least 10m tonnes of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028. The US list is narrower, at 77 categories, but covers containerised goods such as toys, small kitchen appliances, tableware, blankets, bed linen, fireworks, holiday decoration and children's car seats. Notably, soybeans, the US's largest export to China, China's rare earth minerals, and AI-linked products are excluded from the reduced tariffs. Meanwhile, transpacific rates have ended a five-month upward streak. On Friday, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index showed rates from Shanghai to US west and east coast ports dipped 1% from 18 September, to $7,463 and $10,497 per 40ft respectively. Consultancy Linerlytica noted: "China's exports of small appliances, tableware, bed linens, toys, fireworks, and holiday ornaments would receive a minor boost, although these [tariff] cuts will come too late for the transpacific peak season, which is coming to an end as the China's Golden Week holidays start on 1 October." In response, Maersk Line will withdraw its Transpacific Express extra loader Asia-USWC service next month, removing weekly capacity of 4,000 teu. Meanwhile, analysts suggested the trade truce, extended into next year, could only have a moderate impact, as the tariffs only cover 30% of US exports to China, which totalled about $68bn in the first seven months of the year, against some $270bn in imports from China.

Nairobi moves beyond flowers as inbound ecommerce surges

Nairobi appears to be moving beyond its traditional role as a flower-export gateway, with international cargo operators seeing new two-way flows emerging across perishables, ecommerce, pharmaceuticals and other time-sensitive cargo. Turkish Cargo, which operates four weekly freighter services to Nairobi, said the Kenyan capital had become one of its busiest freighter operations in Africa, with its role evolving from a predominantly export market into a two-way connection point for East Africa. The comments come as ground handler Çelebi Aviation takes on Turkish Airlines' Nairobi operation, providing handling services at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) since early August. The agreement adds Turkish Airlines to Çelebi's growing customer base in Kenya, which includes British Airways, Emirates SkyCargo, Network Airlines and Astral Aviation. For Turkish Cargo, the importance of Nairobi extends beyond Kenyan-origin freight. Tarık Parlak, senior vice president for cargo sales at Turkish Airlines, said the carrier's Nairobi shipments connected to 132 destinations through its Istanbul hub based on full-year 2025 and year-to-date 2026 figures, with Europe accounting for the largest share, followed by the Far East and the Americas. "Nairobi's strategic value to us extends well beyond cargo generated in Kenya," Mr Parlak told The Loadstar. "Kenya's access to the Indian Ocean, together with its road and rail links to neighbouring markets, gives the country an important gateway role in East African trade. Nairobi provides the air cargo connection within that wider logistics structure." Perishables, however, remain at the heart of that business. Turkish Cargo said it carried more than 10,000 tonnes of flowers from Nairobi in 2025, while shipments of fresh vegetables increased 21% year on year during the first seven months of 2026, reaching 2,400 tonnes. Çelebi similarly said flowers remained the largest export category at JKIA, alongside fruit and vegetables, particularly for European markets. But the more significant development may be on the inbound side. Turkish Cargo said ecommerce shipments arriving from mainly China and Hong Kong had grown by approximately 280% in both revenue and tonnage during the first seven months of 2026. Ecommerce's share of total inbound tonnage increased from 2% to 7%, although the carrier stressed that the starting base remained relatively small. "Outbound ecommerce volumes from Nairobi remain limited, but inbound shipments to the wider region, originating mainly in China and Hong Kong, are growing rapidly," Mr Parlak said. "One segment is not replacing another. Nairobi's perishable exports are diversifying, while ecommerce adds a new inbound flow to the wider region." That shift is also creating demand for more specialised cargo handling. Çelebi said JKIA handled more than 400,000 tonnes of cargo in 2025 and that pharmaceuticals and healthcare products were becoming increasingly important alongside the airport's established perishables business. Atilla Korkmazoğlu, president of ground handling and cargo EMEA, at Çelebi Aviation, said the company was investing in infrastructure and equipment, digitalisation, standardised procedures, people and training as part of its development of the Kenyan operation. "Pharmaceutical and other temperature-sensitive cargo is an important part of this transformation," Mr Korkmazoğlu said. GDP certification, alongside ISO 9001:2015 and ISAGO, provided the framework and controls required for these increasingly sophisticated cargo flows. For Turkish Cargo, the changing cargo mix is also influencing how capacity is deployed through Istanbul. Mr Parlak said the carrier was planning capacity, connection options and transit times together as demand shifted between markets, rather than treating each element separately. The carrier's flower traffic illustrates that approach. During the first seven months of 2026, flower tonnage from Nairobi to Oslo increased 113%, while volumes to Amsterdam rose 119% and tonnage to Almaty increased 29%. The UK remained its largest market, with 4,400 tonnes carried to Stansted and Heathrow over the period. Turkish Cargo also sees further potential in special cargo, with its SMARTIST 2.0 investment in Istanbul intended to increase annual handling capacity to 4.5m tonnes, double cold-chain capacity and allocate close to half of total capacity to special cargo operations. However, Nairobi's growth is not without operational challenges. Turkish Cargo pointed to pressure on cold-storage capacity during peak periods such as Valentine's Day and Mother's Day, as well as apron and aircraft parking constraints. It also highlighted differences in customs processes, digitalisation, banking infrastructure and foreign-currency access across African markets. Mr Korkmazoğlu said Nairobi already had many of the characteristics of a regional gateway, pointing to its geographic position, established perishables base and connectivity with Europe, the Middle East, and increasingly Asia. For Turkish Cargo, the next phase is likely to be defined by diversification rather than a replacement of Nairobi's established export business. Mr Parlak said the carrier saw its strongest growth opportunities in two directions: the continued diversification of East African perishables moving into Europe, and the development of inbound ecommerce flows from Asia.

German security agencies baulk at Cosco bid for Zippel

German authorities are reportedly set to block Cosco's acquisition of Hamburg logistics outfit Konrad Zippel, following pressure from security agencies that the deal would give China too great a handle across regional maritime infrastructure. Citing a "classified" note, German outlet Handelsblatt said the federal government was ready to act on concerns, flagged by domestic security services, that the deal formed part of a "cumulative acquisition strategy" to gain a strategic foothold at the port. At the time of publishing neither German authorities nor representatives of Hamburg Port Authority or Zippel had responded to requests for comment from The Loadstar, but Zippel MD Axel Plass has rejected security concerns related to the deal. Earlier this year, Mr Plass said the Cosco deal was about "winning and retaining cargo", not part of a Chinese plan to gain strategic control over German infrastructure, adding that under the proposals, "all jobs will be preserved". Under Cosco's proposal, the state-owned Chinese shipping giant would acquire an 80% stake in Zippel, through its Dutch subsidiary Goldlead Supply Chain Development, with Mr Plass retaining 20%. With the deal for Germany's oldest freight forwarding company having been cleared by competition authority Bundeskartellamt, back in February, Mr Plass stressed that, from a national security perspective, Zippel has just a 1.5% market share. The security agencies are not opposed to the deal, their concern lies in it forming part of a broader acquisition strategy, beginning with Cosco's contentious 2023 purchase of a 24.99% stake in the Tollerot container terminal (CTT). Having initially sought a 35% stake in CTT, German authorities intervened to prevent the deal, on the grounds that giving Cosco - and, by extension, the Chinese government - a controlling stake in a Hamburg terminal would be a strategic liability. It was only after Chancellor Olaf Scholz stepped in, that a compromise 24.99% stake was reached, although even this necessitated six months of checks and assessments by German security agencies before final sign-off. Considered alongside its fleet of vessels and stake in Tollerot, the security agencies believe control of Zippel and its intermodal and hinterland activities would afford the Chinese state influence over a key node of German infrastructure. The deal, however, also comes at a time when container lines are expanding their operating footprint well beyond their traditional ocean-going operations, Maersk, through APMT, boasting strong vertical integration at multiple ports around the world, for example. Only in August did German operator Hapag-Lloyd announce its plans to acquire a 25% stake in Rotterdam's APM Terminals Maasvlakte II, citing a desire to secure "long-term" terminal capacity in the region.