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The off-peak that isn't: why January squeezes Europe's ecommerce logistics

Christmas returns, New Year demand for supplements and fitness products, and up to four weekday holidays leave some EU markets with just 11 delivery days in three weeks. Most of the industry has its eyes on the fourth quarter. As The Loadstar reported last week, US consumers are expected to spend 6.7% more online this holiday season than last year. But for Europe's ecommerce networks, the pressure does not ease on 24 December. It simply shifts into January - a month most logistics calendars still file under off-peak. In the first weeks of the year, three separate loads converge on the same warehouses, carriers and pickup points. And they land in the tightest delivery window of the year. Three loads, one window The first load is December coming back. As soon as offices reopen, shoppers start sending back Christmas gifts and online orders. In the UK, Royal Mail braced for half a million gifts to be returned in the first week of January 2026, with returns expected to climb by about 25%. Those parcels compete with new outbound orders for the same dock doors, staff and sorting capacity. The second load is fresh demand. Many consumers start the year with health goals, and their baskets follow: supplements, sports nutrition, fitness equipment and diet products. Official UK figures show how strong the effect can be. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes rose 1.8% in January 2026, the largest monthly gain since May 2024, with online sellers of sports supplements among the drivers. Supplements are the clearest case, but any category tied to New Year resolutions follows the same curve. The third load is missing capacity. Public holidays shut carriers and pickup points. Temporary staff hired for the Christmas peak are gone by the end of December. And warehouses set receiving cut-offs ahead of the holidays, so an inbound delivery that slips by a few days can miss the first sales week of the year. Eleven delivery days in three weeks The holidays eat into that window more than many shippers realise. At WAPI, we counted the delivery days in the 18 EU markets where we fulfill supplements and collect cash on delivery (COD). Only 11 to 13 of the 15 weekdays between 21 December 2026 and 8 January 2027 are delivery days. Holidays that fall on a Saturday are not included. 6 markets sit at the bottom of the range, with 11 delivery days each: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Each loses four weekdays to public holidays in the period, although in Slovakia the status of 6 January still needs to be confirmed before plans are locked in. Figure 1. Weekday holidays between 21 December and 8 January in the six EU markets with the fewest delivery days. Source: WAPI Nor do the closures line up. Latvia shuts on 31 December, Bulgaria moves its 26 December holiday to Monday 28 December, and Romania closes on both 6 and 7 January. A network serving several countries from one warehouse therefore has to plan a separate cut-off for each market. In Poland, a parcel that misses the last delivery on Wednesday 23 December will not move again until Monday 28 December - the same week the first returns start rolling in. A second wave from China While Europe works through its January peak, the next supply problem is already building in Asia. Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than in 2026. China's State Council usually publishes the official holiday window around November, so the exact 2027 dates are not yet known. The public holiday itself is the smallest part of the disruption. Factories typically wind down two to three weeks before the holiday, and many stay closed or run at reduced capacity for a month or more. Full output often does not return until mid-March, because a share of workers never come back to the same factory. For European ecommerce, the timing is what hurts. Working back from those closures, the last reliable departures from China fall in early to mid January 2027 - squarely in the European demand peak. Packaging, labels and raw materials for the February and March replenishment therefore need to be ordered before Christmas, while warehouse teams in Europe are still absorbed by the fourth quarter. Figure 2. The European January peak and the last reliable departures from China fall in the same weeks. Sources: WAPI, industry estimates Where January hurts most The squeeze does not hit all goods equally. Two groups carry the most risk: orders paid by cash on delivery, and products with a short shelf life. In January, many supplement orders fall into both. With COD, the buyer pays only when the parcel arrives. If it turns up late, or sits at a closed pickup point, the buyer can simply refuse it - and the seller pays for transport both ways and loses the sale. COD remains widespread across some regions in Europe, and those regions lose the most delivery days over the holidays. The cost of a refusal also grows with time. The parcel works its way back through the network alongside the Christmas returns and joins the same inspection queue. For a vitamin pack with only a few months of shelf life left, that delay can decide whether it returns to sale or is written off. In my experience, most January failures start small: a parcel that waits too long at a pickup point, or a delivery attempt that fails on the last day before a closure. In our network, flagging parcels that are close to the pickup deadline lets the team reach the buyer in time, and that cuts expired pickups by 40-55%. When a new delivery request goes to the carrier automatically, it arrives 80% faster than a manual one. In January, that speed is often the difference between a sale and a refusal. 5 questions for your 3PL before the December cut-off Most of these failures can be caught before the holidays. 5 questions reveal whether a logistics partner is ready for the peak after the peak. Conclusion The January peak, the year's shortest delivery window and the next round of orders to Asia all land in the same few weeks. A plan drawn up in December is too late for all three. For shippers and their logistics partners, January really starts in October, while stock targets, receiving slots and supplier orders can still be set with the Christmas peak ahead. This post was sponsored by WAPI.

Canada pivot to Europe opens air cargo opportunities, exposing capacity gaps

Canada's efforts to reduce its reliance on the US are opening new opportunities for transatlantic air cargo, but forwarders warn that limited capacity and seasonal reductions in passenger flights could complicate the shift. Edmonton International Airport said its EU-bound cargo increased in 2025 while exports to the US fell, and expects record European flows this year. Alex Lowe, director, ecommerce, cargo, and aviation real estate, explained: "So far the data trend suggests 2026 will be a record year for air cargo from YEG to the EU." The airport also expects record EU imports this year, with turbine parts, medical diagnostic equipment, and specialised machinery among its leading inbound commodities. Mr Lowe said trade diversification could encourage greater use of airfreight as Canadian businesses developed relationships with more distant markets. "From an air cargo perspective, we welcome this trend as it encourages trade with markets that may lean towards increased air cargo, given the geographic distances." However, turning that opportunity into sustained business will require sufficient capacity. "Both our passenger and cargo data does show that the YEG market is underserved to/from the EU, so we are working with existing airline partners and potential new entrants to develop increased transatlantic air services, and/or increased capacity," he said. "The ability to offer consistent two-way cargo volumes is a strong contributor to our business case." Steffen Manz, CEO of Speed Global Logistics, said the challenge extended beyond Edmonton. "Capacity remains a significant bottleneck, particularly for Western Canada, meaning a substantial portion of western cargo must still route through eastern gateways or US hubs." He said West Canadian shippers depended on seasonal passenger belly capacity and domestic feeder networks connecting with eastern gateways. But diversification is already generating new airfreight business, according to Mr Manz, who cited an Ontario-based automotive and electronics manufacturer that had previously sent component sub-assemblies by truck to a customer in the US Midwest. Following the introduction of tariffs, he said, the Canadian supplier became uncompetitive on that lane and activated a backup supply agreement with a German automotive systems integrator. "Because the new supply chain had to be stood up immediately, to prevent factory downtime, the initial months of volume shifted entirely from domestic trucking to expedited transatlantic airfreight to Frankfurt and Liège, generating entirely new lane demand for the air cargo network." Official figures support the broader change in trading patterns, although they also underline the importance of distinguishing trade value from freight volumes. Statistics Canada reports that merchandise exports to non-US countries rose 17.2% in value in 2025, while exports to the US fell 5.8%. Total merchandise trade with non-US countries increased 14.3%. Gold was an important contributor: exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum-group metals and their alloys - predominantly gold - rose 41.7% in value amid rising prices. Excluding that category, total Canadian merchandise exports fell 3%. Transport Canada's 2025 annual report also identified weaker cross-border trucking and rail activity alongside increased overseas shipments and air cargo. It noted 8% more air cargo with Europe, mainly gold and aircraft. The Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association (CIFFA) said businesses were exploring alternatives to US suppliers, reflecting changing consumer preferences as well as tariffs. It said some additional freight was moving between Canada and Europe, but warned that the transition into winter airline schedules would reduce available widebody services. However, Canada's Cargojet has added capacity, launching a Wednesday 767 freighter service on 23 September, between Hamilton, Halifax, and Liège, returning to Hamilton. The service complements its weekend operation and connects with its Canadian overnight network. CIFFA suggested the additional flight could absorb some of the capacity lost as passenger airlines reduce their European services. CIFFA also cautioned that Edmonton's growth could partly reflect the additional European airline services over the summer, rather than solely a change in shippers' trading relationships. The economics of diversification remain challenging. CIFFA highlighted the difficulty of moving bulky or heavy goods by air, while higher fuel costs could make alternative routings prohibitively expensive. Airfreight was better suited to higher-value finished goods, it added. Mr Manz, nevertheless, believes the change will endure. He said: "Evidence points to this being a sustained, structural shift rather than a temporary trend." Export Development Canada's 2026 Trade Confidence Index found 31% of Canadian exporters planned to enter Europe in the next two years. EDC is also expanding its European presence with new representations in France and Sweden, and another planned for Poland in 2027. Meanwhile, Edmonton sees pharmaceuticals as a further source of potential demand. Applied Pharmaceutical Innovation is developing a Critical Medicines Production Centre in the region, with capacity to produce 70 million doses annually. The airport said operations were expected to begin later this year or in early 2027. "Air cargo is a critical contributor to revenue on our passenger flights to the EU as belly cargo," it said. "Our team is always working to find and grow the cargo contributions for our airline partners." The airport is also developing its International Cargo Hub, which it said was budgeted at more than C$350m (US$245m). Work includes expanded freighter aprons, a fuel hydrant system, additional perishables and pharmaceutical handling facilities, and infrastructure to serve a 2,000-acre cargo and logistics park. "These investments align perfectly with the Canadian government's objectives to diversify Canada's trade profile internationally and open up global markets for western Canadian businesses."

Fleet expansion fuels Emirates SkyCargo's South American demand growth

Emirates SkyCargo's South American network expansion has led to double-digit percentage volume increases. Earlier this year, the Dubai-based carrier added seven weekly freighter flights from the region, including three extra flights from Buenos Aires, two additional flights from Sao Paulo, one from Bogota and another from Quito. Emirates SkyCargo said the additional flights had facilitated a "significant increase" in export volumes in the first half of the 2025/26 financial year, with Argentina growing by 57% year on year, Brazil by 22%, 18% from Colombia and 14% from Ecuador. Badr Abbas, divisional senior vice president, Emirates SkyCargo, said: "South America is a dynamic emerging hub for exports across a range of sectors including high-quality food products and fresh flowers that rely on fast and reliable air cargo connectivity to reach global customers. "Since April this year, we have transported more than 22,000 tonnes of export cargo from our South American markets, a growth of 18% over the volumes carried during the same period in the previous year." Drilling further into the increases, the carrier said that from Ecuador, the carrier was now flying six times a week and offering export capacity of around 600 tonnes. The flights go directly from Quito to Amsterdam, which is host to one of the world's largest flower markets. Flowers account for more than 90% of all export cargo uplifted from Ecuador by Emirates SkyCargo. During the financial year 25/26 the cargo business transported nearly 24,000 tonnes of flowers. Meanwhile, the carrier added a weekly freighter flight from Bogota in May and it has helped meet demand for flower exports. "In Financial year 25/26, the carrier transported more than 3,500 tonnes of flowers from the country, supporting producers with reliable access to international markets," Emirates said. For Argentina, the carrier commenced weekly freighter operations from Buenos Aires in March and in July increased to three weekly freighter flights. Since April 2024, Emirates SkyCargo has facilitated the movement of approximately 5,000 tonnes of exports from Argentina, including perishables such as fresh fruit, salmon and meat products. Finally, for Brazil, Emirates SkyCargo now flies four times per week from Sao Paulo "supporting the movement of a broad range of commodities to destinations across its international network". The extra flights have been enabled by the expansion of the Emirates fleet. The cargo carrier has taken delivery of seven Boeing 777 production freighter aircraft since March 2026 as well as the first Boeing 777-300ERSF converted from an Emirates passenger aircraft. By the end of March 2027, the carrier will operate a fleet of 23 dedicated freighter aircraft. Globally, the air cargo carrier has expanded its global network of freighter destinations from just over 40 in March 2026 to over 60 by July 2026.