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Express faces growing divide between volume growth and profitable growth

The global express and parcels market grew 5.8% in 2025, to €577.3bn ($642.6bn), but mounting pricing pressure, shifting trade flows and intensifying competition are creating a growing challenge for carriers seeking to turn higher volumes into profits. The recent Global Express & Parcels 2026 report by Transport Intelligence predicted that the market would reach €609.1bn this year and €760.1bn by 2030, representing compound annual growth of around 5.7%. But the headline growth masks stark regional differences. Asia Pacific, which in 2024 overtook North America as the largest regional market, is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 8% between 2026 and 2030, while North America is expected to grow 4.1%, and Europe by 3.6%, with several major carriers in mature markets experiencing revenue declines. DHL Express told The Loadstar international cross-border express, particularly time-definite services, remained a growth engine for the group, although its premium proposition was not suited to every B2C shipment. The company reported continued strong volumes into Europe and an uplift in shipments to Latin America, as retailers adjusted their strategies following the removal of the US de minimis exemption for low-value packages. Asia-US B2C volumes, which initially declined after the change, subsequently partially recovered. under its Strategy 2030, DHL Express identified 22 markets with above-average growth potential, including Vietnam, Thailand, Poland, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, and India, citing opportunities linked to near-shoring, supply chain diversification, and investment. Ti report author Paul Chapman said: "The global parcels market continues to grow, but this masks increasingly divergent performance among operators, particularly in mature markets where pricing pressure, subdued B2B demand, and the shift towards lower-cost services are weighing on revenues." He added that established carriers faced the challenge of converting rising parcel volumes into profitable growth amid intensifying competition and the expansion of in-house delivery networks. This has meant consolidation gathering pace. Ti tracked 136 mergers, acquisitions and investment transactions between May 2023 and August 2026, including the FedEx-Advent consortium's €7.8bn agreement to take InPost private. Meanwhile, 24 of 34 identified artificial intelligence use cases in express and parcels are already operational. On margins, DHL Express told The Loadstar it maintained a strong focus on yield and cost management, arguing that customers continued to pay for speed, reliability, security, and customs expertise. A spokesperson said: "One area where we have seen a significant increase is in heavier-weight goods, with customers that previously might have favoured a forwarding-air cargo solution choosing DHL Express, based on factors such as the guaranteed uplift and capacity, reduced time for inventory in transit, reliable end-to-end delivery and visibility, and transparent, predictable pricing." According to Ti, the B2C segment accounted for 62.8% of global market value in 2025, forecast to rise to 67.3% by 2030. Global parcel volumes are expected to reach 432.5bn by the end of the decade, with Asia Pacific accounting for 80.3% of global volume in 2025. The report also suggests that although the global market will reach €760.1bn by 2030, the growing divide between volume growth and profitable growth looks set to remain a defining challenge for the sector.

Four pallets, 500 sneakers, DSV the forwarder - here's what happened

Last month, I sent an email to a selected bunch of investors and analysts. I had a question or two, for background only - in case they could share insight. Based on the feedback I got, I said, it doesn't look like DSV has figured out its AI roadmap yet; they may even keep CargoWise in parts of their operations for longer, etc etc, and so... how realistic, really - I wondered out loud - is their 2030 Dkr6bn (nearly $900m!) ...

Condor rebrands cargo products ahead of offering expansion

Leisure airline Condor has rebranded its air cargo products as part of efforts to provide clarity on what each of the services provides and ahead of an expansion of products on offer. The airline announced this week that it is introducing a "unified structure" for its cargo products to make it clear which transportation requirements each product is designed to meet. From 1 November, standard freight will be carried under JUSTmove product, while its pharma services will be known as moveCOOL, perishables will become moveFRESH and express services will be called moveFAST. Condor launched its express product in May. Thilo Schäfer, director of cargo at Condor, said: "With this new product structure, we are giving our offering a clear framework and tailoring it to our customers' different requirements. "At the same time, we are laying the groundwork for the systematic expansion of our cargo portfolio. The new structure makes it easier for freight forwarders and shippers to navigate our offering and gives them a clearer picture of the solutions available. "This is an important step in making even greater use of the potential of our international route network for our cargo business." Condor Cargo offers freight capacity in the cargo holds of all Condor passenger flights, connecting destinations in Europe, North America, the Caribbean, Africa and Asia. The airline also offers capacity through interline partnerships and a road feeder network.