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Signs of stabilisation on China-Europe routes

Figures from WorldACD Market Data for 17 August to 23 August suggest that China-Europe air cargo traffic is beginning to stabilise after several weeks of decline, following the 1 July introduction of European Union import duty rules for low-value imports, including e-commerce. During week 34, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe crept up by 1% week on week - the first such increase since early June, WorldACD noted. The data provider said: "Although it's relatively early days since the 1 July ending of EU 'de minimis' exemptions on low-value imports, the WoW [week-on-week] uptick in tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe could signal a bottoming out of that downward trend and a potential stabilisation of volumes at a new lower level, supported by rebounding post-summer demand." However, compared to week 34 of 2025 volumes are substantially down: by 8% on mainland China-Europe routes and by 33% for Hong Kong-Europe tonnages. More generally for Asia Pacific-Europe traffic, volumes rose by 3% week on week. A massive 88% increase on traffic ex Japan was the main factor in this development (volumes in the preceding week were hit by the country's Obon festival as well as flight cancellations out of Tokyo owing to tropical storm Chan-Hom). Elsewhere, Asia Pacific-US volumes were "flat" week on week, WorldACD said, a 33% rise in tonnages ex Japan offset by declines in other origin markets (China down 3% and Hong Kong down 2%, for instance). Year-on-year comparisons for traffic to the US are tricky given the many changes to US import tariffs and exemptions. Still, tonnages ex China were up 11%, and from Hong Kong up 9 percent, compared to the same week of 2025. As for total Asia Pacific origin volumes, WorldACD said: "Total Asia Pacific origin volumes in week 34 were up, WoW, by +7 percent, after falling by around -5 percent the previous week, taking them back slightly above their levels of week 33, and +4 percent higher than the equivalent week last year. More than half of that +7 percent WoW increase is explained by the recovery ex-Japan." Volumes from the Middle East and South Asia origins rose by 4% week on week and 7% year on year, despite the continuing disruptions to capacity and traffic in parts of that region due to the US-Iran confrontation. Week-on-week increases from India to Europe (up 5 percent) and Dubai/Bangladesh (up 6 percent) to Europe contrasted with a drop from Dubai to the US (down 15%). Out of Europe and the US, volumes were down week on week by 4 percent and 2 percent respectively though - "limiting global WoW growth to +2 percent in week 34, and the YoY [year-on-year] worldwide increase to +5 percent" according to WorldACD. Similar to week 32, average global air cargo spot rates rose by 1% week on week. For China-Europe shipments spot rates have picked up for three weeks in a row as carriers have adjusted capacity to match new levels of demand in the wake of the EU de minimis change. "Among the key origin markets, spot rates from key high-tech export hubs such as South Korea (+25%, YoY), Taiwan (+25%), and many parts of southeast Asia, were well above the regional average, including Vietnam (+22%, YoY), Thailand (+32%), Malaysia (+42%)," WorldACD observed. Rates ex Asia Pacific to the US have held steady of late, as has global airfreight capacity -which edged up by 1% week on week in week 34. The ongoing Israel conflict has impacted capacity out of the Middle East, South Asia and the Gulf, while Europe and North America have seen increases in capacity since that war began.

Dimerco volumes take off in 2026

Being an airfreight forwarder in Taiwan must be like shooting fish in a barrel at the moment, given the high levels of demand for semiconductor and AI-related shipments. Figures released by Taiwan's Ministry of Finance show that exports of electronic integrated circuits rose 52.3% year on year in July to $26.3bn. Kathy Liu, vice president, global sales and marketing at Taiwan-headquartered Dimerco Express Group, confirms that volumes have boomed this year. In the first quarter, the company's airfreight volumes increased by 20% year on year, with high-tech, semiconductor and AI infrastructure-related supply chains identified as key growth drivers. Given the rapid growth of the sector, Liu says Dimerco is working closely with customers to understand their requirements. "This kind of product always needs a white-glove service until it reaches the data centre," she explains. "It requires very detailed management and they are very high value so it always requires a lot of professionalism." But AI-related demand is not the only factor driving volume growth. The increase in demand during the first quarter also reflects the continued shift towards China+1 strategies, regional manufacturing diversification and multi-location sourcing models, all of which are generating greater demand for cross-regional logistics. Asked whether the shift of production from China to Southeast Asia has eased following the reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods, which last year peaked at more than 130%, Liu tells Air Cargo News that the trend is continuing. "It will continue because the labour cost in China is gradually increasing - it cannot compare with 10-20 years ago," she says. "So for those low-value or labour-intensive production lines, for sure it will move out and that would have happened even without the tariffs and regulations." However, she adds: "For those high-value, high-technology production lines where you need skilled labour, this will remain in China. We even see some of those production lines in that category that have moved out of China and are now switching back." Growing pains The rapid rate of growth is not without its challenges. Liu says Taiwan and other high-growth locations such as Vietnam and Thailand do not have enough airfreight capacity to meet demand during peak periods. To help manage the shortfall, customers have been turning to sea-air, air-sea and road-air solutions, as well as regional transhipment hubs. "Last year, when we faced some problems with air capacity out of Vietnam, we flew into Shanghai and then used capacity from there to the US. Vietnam is also very close to Guangzhou so we can truck there and then take a flight to the US." Dimerco also manages peak season demand through a charter programme, block space agreements (BSAs) and close relationships with carriers. Liu adds that the forwarder does not rely too heavily on BSAs so it is not overcommitted during slower periods of the year. Instead, it relies on building close relationships with airlines. "We have core carriers and with those long-term partners we have access to extra capacity for the peak season," Liu says. She explains that other forwarders will "shop around" during slower periods to secure lower prices, only to find it more difficult to access capacity when demand peaks. Infrastructure in some locations has also struggled to keep pace with the surge in demand. Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport has this year faced operational delays, with reports that import cargo processing was taking several weeks at points during the year. Exports have largely been unaffected because the cargo is booked on a specific flight and subject to a fixed cut-off time. "The facility, the infrastructure, is not really ready for the cargo boom, so they need to catch up quickly," says Liu. A lack of digitalisation has compounded the problem, she says. She adds that one customer decided to truck shipments from Shanghai to China to avoid congestion in Bangkok. Manila is another airport to have faced congestion issues this year. Asked whether such problems could slow the expansion of manufacturing in Southeast Asia, Liu says companies appear unfazed, instead adapting their logistics operations to minimise the impact of congestion.

AI and semiconductor demand continues to fuel demand out of Taiwan

Air cargo capacity out of Taiwan remains tight and rates are rising on every lane due to continued AI and semiconductor demand, new research from Dimerco has found. The freight forwarder's Asia Pac Freight Report for September found that Asia-US demand in particular is being propelled by AI-related goods flown out of Taiwan. "Asia-US demand still leans heavily on AI-related products out of Taiwan," said Dimerco. Additionally, South Korea's load factors to the US are nearly at 90%. The freight forwarder added that in comparison, "ex-China volumes into the US remain soft with no meaningful pickup". Meanwhile Asia-Europe demand and rates continue to be subdued due to the EU's removal of its de minimis exemption on 1 July. The seasonal summer holiday slowdown has added to this issue, said Dimerco. "September should bring a modest recovery on quarter-end shipping and pre-Golden Week bookings, but the e-commerce base has not returned," commented the forwarder. Looking at Asia specifically, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore remain the tightest airfreight markets. Within Asia, Dimerco said "traffic is running below the same period last year, and some China-Vietnam and China-Thailand volume has shifted to road freight on cost and lead-time grounds". The company added that "Middle East re-routing is still stretches long-haul sectors, while typhoons at Chinese gateways and India's monsoon add ground-side friction". Economic signs were positive and global manufacturing logged a twelfth straight month of expansion in July, though the pace was the softest since March.