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Divide between Asia-US and Asia-Europe rates at historic levels

The price gap between container spot rates from Asia to North America and those to Europe has reached historic levels, with Sea-Intelligence warning that the current arbitrage could persist for several months. According to the latest analysis from the consultancy, Asia-US spot rates continue to rise, while Asia-Europe prices decline, creating an unprecedented premium for US importers. Using Drewry WCI weekly spot rate data from May 2012 to October 2026, Sea-Intelligence looked at four rate differentials between the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades. The most striking disparity was Asia to the US east coast (USEC), where the differential versus to North Europe reached $7,026 per 40ft in the latest week, in favour of the US - more than double the previous record of $3,179, recorded in June 2021. The Mediterranean-US east coast differential has also reached a record, of $6,726 per 40ft, the previous high being $2,828, also in June 2021. The pattern is similar to the US west coast (USWC) ports, where the difference between Asia-North Europe stands at $4,436 per 40ft in favour of the USWC. Sea-Intelligence said this premium was also comparable in scale to the extreme arbitrage seen in 2021, although the direction has reversed. In 2021, it favoured North Europe, reaching $4,888 in January and $4,510 in June. That was initially driven by pandemic-related disruption, and subsequently exacerbated by the grounding of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal in March. "Every time we analyse developments in the market, and try to assess metrics over a longer time series, we find that what was normal in the pre-pandemic era, simply looks different now," said Sea-Intelligence. It explained that before 2020, freight rate movements of hundreds of dollars were considered significant, while changes above $1,000 were rare. Today's much sharper and faster rate movements demonstrate that market dynamics have fundamentally changed. Normally, arbitrage should encourage carriers to shift capacity between trades, eventually narrowing the difference. But Sea-Intelligence cautioned that such changes took time, operationally, and because carriers needed confidence that a pricing imbalance would persist before redeploying vessels. It also warned there was a precedent for a prolonged arbitrage. In the first half of 2021, the gap opened rapidly around January and remained elevated until June. Though that history does not mean the current transpacific premium would necessarily last as long, the consultancy added - rates could simply fall. But it does mean the size of the arbitrage should not be interpreted as evidence that transpacific rates are about to fall, while Asia-Europe rates rise. Sea-Intelligence concluded that the post-2020 market required a rethink of how shippers manage freight price risk. "The market has already changed fundamentally. What we need to see now is the contracting process - and the associated risk management and budget processes - change, to reflect this new reality."

Japan Airlines and Nippon Express launch Asia-North America routes

Japan Airlines (JAL) and Nippon Express have launched a transport partnership covering intra-Asia and North America-Asia routes to meet growing demand for movement of AI and semiconductor-related goods. The service operates on a round-trip circuit originating in Los Angeles and routing via Tokyo's Narita, Taiwan's Taipei (Taoyuan), Singapore and Narita before returning to Los Angeles. This service utilises a Boeing 747 freighter, with a maximum payload of approximately 100 tons, secured by JAL through cooperation with its partners. The first flight of the service departed Los Angeles on 3 October. There will be one flight per week for the remainder of the year. Japan Airlines and Nippon Express noted that demand for AI- and semiconductor-related cargo is currently very strong, particularly between Tokyo, Taipei and Singapore, yet few airlines operate large freighters within Asia, leaving shippers with limited options. Leveraging the unique capabilities of the 747F, the service accommodates transport demand for oversized and heavy cargo such as server racks and data centre-related equipment, as well as high-value-added cargo, which is increasing alongside the spread of generative AI and expanding investment in digital infrastructure, the companies added. The cargo transported on the route can also be loaded and unloaded at each port of call on the circuit route for demand flexibility. Both companies plan to continue to pursue further network expansion going forward. Yuichiro Kito, executive officer, senior vice president - cargo and mail at Japan Airlines, said: "This new partnership further strengthens the long-standing relationship between JAL and the NX Group. "In addition to our passenger flights and our own freighter network, this partnership with NX will bring large freighter service to the US west coast for the first time. "We will expand our air cargo network in rapidly growing markets and deliver JAL Cargo's high-quality cargo handling services to even more customers." Satoshi Otsuji, senior managing executive officer, president of global business headquarters at Nippon Express Holdings, said: "Through this partnership, the NX Group will strengthen its ability to provide more stable and flexible transport solutions in response to increasingly sophisticated and diverse air transport needs. "Building on our many years of cooperation with JAL, we will further expand our international air cargo network utilising large freighter aircraft, contributing to the stability of our customers' supply chains and to their business growth."

Heathrow's third runway looks likely to open closer to 2039 than 2035

Heathrow Airport has indicated that the opening of its planned third runway will be closer to 2039 than 2035. The London, UK airport had already outlined early this year that the opening of the runway may take longer than anticipated. In its first quarter 2025 results, published 30 April 2025, it said that depending on the Government's response, it aimed for the third runway to be operational by 2035. But in January 2026, Heathrow had said the UK Government timetable was to secure planning permission by 2029 and bring the runway into operation within a decade, up to 2039. In a recently issued statement to Reuters, a spokesperson for Heathrow said that 2035 had been an "ambitious target". However, the airport added: "Our focus has always been to secure planning permission by 2029. Once achieved the runway will be open within a decade." Heathrow did not respond to Air Cargo News' request for comment. The planned runway will be a key part of Heathrow's expansion. In November 2025, the government announced that it had decided to back the Heathrow Northwest Runway scheme by Heathrow Airport Limited (HAL). The plans include a 3.5 km runway and building a tunnel under the development through which the M25 motorway will run. This scheme "offered the most credible and deliverable option and would be the scheme to inform the Airports NPS review," said the Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement. In January this year, Logistics UK welcomed Heathrow's approval of funding to begin work on a planning application for the third runway. Funding the planning application is an important initial step in securing planning approval by its 2029 target. Heathrow is now preparing to launch its 2026 Public Consultation. The eight-week consultation will run from 27 October to 22 December with local residents able to learn more about expansion plans, before a planning application is submitted. Heathrow moved 1.5m tonnes in 2025, up 0.8% year on year, as UK cargo surged 29.7% and North America rose 4.6%. As well as HAL's scheme for a new runway, the airport is also using a participatory stakeholder approach as it continues to redevelop its 'Horseshoe' cargo area and supports the rollout of the CCS-UK AIS (Advance Information System) portal for booking and monitoring trucks.